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Mjøndalen II vs Randesund — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Randesund
Randesund
9/23/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 21Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjøndalen II56%
×Draw20%
Randesund24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjøndalen II
2.38
Randesund
1.53

Mjøndalen II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mjøndalen II
2.23
Randesund
0.69

allows per match

Mjøndalen II
2.38
Randesund
2.54

finishing

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par
Randesund+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjøndalen II ↓

Randesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Mjøndalen II or draw
76%
Mjøndalen II or Randesund
80%
Draw or Randesund
44%

Winning margin

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
35%
Randesund wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
91%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
68%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
42%
Randesund 1+ goals
78%
Randesund 2+ goals
45%
Randesund 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
70%
Randesund (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjøndalen II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Randesund away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjøndalen II attack 2.23 + Randesund defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.38

Randesund attack 0.69 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mjøndalen II scores more
56%
level
20%
Randesund scores more
24%

Mjøndalen II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mjøndalen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Mjøndalen II 3–0 Randesund

Mjøndalen II beat Randesund 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Consto Arena in Mjøndalen.