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Mjøndalen II vs Lillestrøm II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
5/2/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 4Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjøndalen II63%
×Draw19%
Lillestrøm II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjøndalen II
2.31
Lillestrøm II
1.16

Mjøndalen II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mjøndalen II
2.08
Lillestrøm II
1.31

allows per match

Mjøndalen II
1.00
Lillestrøm II
2.54

finishing

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par
Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjøndalen II ↓

Lillestrøm II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Mjøndalen II or draw
82%
Mjøndalen II or Lillestrøm II
81%
Draw or Lillestrøm II
37%

Winning margin

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
40%
Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
90%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
67%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
40%
Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
69%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
32%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
78%
Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjøndalen II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Lillestrøm II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjøndalen II attack 2.08 + Lillestrøm II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.31

Lillestrøm II attack 1.31 + Mjøndalen II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mjøndalen II scores more
63%
level
19%
Lillestrøm II scores more
18%

Mjøndalen II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mjøndalen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjøndalen II vs Lillestrøm II

Mjøndalen II and Lillestrøm II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 2, 2022.

The match was played at Consto Arena in Mjøndalen.