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Mjølner vs Ullern — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
CANC
14:00
Ullern
Ullern
10/17/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mjølner25%
×Draw21%
Ullern53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
1.36
Ullern
2.05

Ullern creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Ullern
2.43

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Ullern
0.57

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Ullern+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Ullern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
47%
Mjølner or Ullern
79%
Draw or Ullern
75%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
11%
Ullern wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
74%
Mjølner 2+ goals
39%
Mjølner 3+ goals
16%
Ullern 1+ goals
87%
Ullern 2+ goals
61%
Ullern 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
32%
Ullern (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Ullern away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Ullern defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ullern attack 2.43 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mjølner scores more
25%
level
21%
Ullern scores more
53%

Ullern at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mjølner face Ullern (3. Division - Girone 6)

3. Division - Girone 6 returns with Mjølner hosting Ullern. Match starts October 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.