Mjølner 0–1 Skjervøy: Result & Stats

Mjølner

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Skjervøy

10/22/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 25Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mjølner52%

×Draw20%

Skjervøy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjølnerExpected goals in this matchSkjervøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.66

Mjølner

2.33

Skjervøy

1.66

Mjølner creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 46 away

2.16

creates per match

1.65

1.67

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Mjølner

2.16

Skjervøy

1.65

allows per match

Mjølner

1.67

Skjervøy

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par

Skjervøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Skjervøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw

72%

Mjølner or Skjervøy

80%

Draw or Skjervøy

48%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+

32%

Skjervøy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals

90%

Mjølner 2+ goals

67%

Mjølner 3+ goals

41%

Skjervøy 1+ goals

81%

Skjervøy 2+ goals

49%

Skjervøy 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)

66%

Skjervøy (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Skjervøy away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Skjervøy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.33

Skjervøy attack 1.65 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mjølner scores more

52%

level

20%

Skjervøy scores more

28%

Mjølner at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff