Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mjølner vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
CANC
14:00
Skeid II
Skeid II
9/26/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mjølner50%
×Draw20%
Skeid II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
2.27
Skeid II
1.75

Mjølner creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Skeid II
1.84

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Skeid II
2.37

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
70%
Mjølner or Skeid II
80%
Draw or Skeid II
50%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
30%
Skeid II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
90%
Mjølner 2+ goals
66%
Mjølner 3+ goals
39%
Skeid II 1+ goals
83%
Skeid II 2+ goals
52%
Skeid II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
62%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Skeid II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.27

Skeid II attack 1.84 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mjølner scores more
50%
level
20%
Skeid II scores more
30%

Mjølner at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mjølner host Skeid II

September 26, 2020: Mjølner take on Skeid II in 3. Division - Girone 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.