Mjølner 4–1 Sarpsborg 08 II: Result & Stats

Mjølner

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sarpsborg 08 II

9/23/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 21Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mjølner55%

×Draw20%

Sarpsborg 08 II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjølnerExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.54

Mjølner

2.35

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.54

Mjølner creates 53% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 33 away

2.16

creates per match

1.42

1.67

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Mjølner

2.16

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.42

allows per match

Mjølner

1.67

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Sarpsborg 08 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw

75%

Mjølner or Sarpsborg 08 II

80%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II

45%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+

34%

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals

90%

Mjølner 2+ goals

68%

Mjølner 3+ goals

41%

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals

79%

Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals

45%

Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)

69%

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Sarpsborg 08 II away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.35

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 1.42 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mjølner scores more

55%

level

20%

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more

25%

Mjølner at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff