Mjølner 3–1 Mjøndalen II: Result & Stats

Mjølner

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mjøndalen II

8/13/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 16Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjølner57%

×Draw18%

Mjøndalen II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjølnerExpected goals in this matchMjøndalen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.72

Mjølner

2.66

Mjøndalen II

1.72

Mjølner creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

2.16

creates per match

1.77

1.67

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Mjølner

2.16

Mjøndalen II

1.77

allows per match

Mjølner

1.67

Mjøndalen II

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Mjøndalen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw

76%

Mjølner or Mjøndalen II

82%

Draw or Mjøndalen II

43%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+

37%

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals

93%

Mjølner 2+ goals

74%

Mjølner 3+ goals

49%

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

82%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

51%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)

70%

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.77, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.66

Mjøndalen II attack 1.77 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mjølner scores more

57%

level

18%

Mjøndalen II scores more

24%

Mjølner at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff