Mjølner 1–0 Melbo IL: Result & Stats

Mjølner

FT

1 – 0

Melbo IL

9/4/2021

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 5Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mjølner51%

×Draw22%

Melbo IL27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjølnerExpected goals in this matchMelbo IL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.33

Mjølner

1.92

Melbo IL

1.33

Mjølner creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 6 away

2.16

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Mjølner

2.16

Melbo IL

1.00

allows per match

Mjølner

1.67

Melbo IL

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par

Melbo IL+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Melbo IL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw

73%

Mjølner or Melbo IL

78%

Draw or Melbo IL

49%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+

29%

Melbo IL wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals

85%

Mjølner 2+ goals

57%

Mjølner 3+ goals

30%

Melbo IL 1+ goals

74%

Melbo IL 2+ goals

38%

Melbo IL 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)

66%

Melbo IL (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Melbo IL away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Melbo IL defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Melbo IL attack 1.00 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mjølner scores more

51%

level

22%

Melbo IL scores more

27%

Mjølner at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff