Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mjølner vs Kongsvinger II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 3
Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
6/9/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 10Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjølner41%
×Draw20%
Kongsvinger II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
2.20
Kongsvinger II
2.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Kongsvinger II
2.62

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Kongsvinger II
2.23

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Kongsvinger II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Kongsvinger II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
61%
Mjølner or Kongsvinger II
80%
Draw or Kongsvinger II
59%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
23%
Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
89%
Mjølner 2+ goals
64%
Mjølner 3+ goals
37%
Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
88%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
63%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
51%
Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Kongsvinger II away — creates 2.62, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Kongsvinger II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.20

Kongsvinger II attack 2.62 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mjølner scores more
41%
level
20%
Kongsvinger II scores more
39%

Mjølner at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Mjølner 4–4 Kongsvinger II

Mjølner and Kongsvinger II drew 4-4 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Narvik Stadion in Narvik.