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Mjølner vs Harstad — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Harstad
Harstad
6/12/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 10Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mjølner51%
×Draw21%
Harstad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
2.21
Harstad
1.63

Mjølner creates 36% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Harstad
1.58

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Harstad
2.27

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Harstad+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Harstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
71%
Mjølner or Harstad
79%
Draw or Harstad
49%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
30%
Harstad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
89%
Mjølner 2+ goals
65%
Mjølner 3+ goals
38%
Harstad 1+ goals
80%
Harstad 2+ goals
48%
Harstad 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
64%
Harstad (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Harstad away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Harstad defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.21

Harstad attack 1.58 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mjølner scores more
51%
level
21%
Harstad scores more
29%

Mjølner at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Mjølner 1–2 Harstad

Harstad beat Mjølner 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Narvik Stadion in Narvik.