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Mjølner vs Hammerfest IF Stein — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hammerfest IF Stein
Hammerfest IF Stein
9/9/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 19Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjølner84%
×Draw10%
Hammerfest IF Stein6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
3.54
Hammerfest IF Stein
0.88

Mjølner creates 302% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Hammerfest IF Stein
0.08

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Hammerfest IF Stein
4.92

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Hammerfest IF Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
94%
Mjølner or Hammerfest IF Stein
90%
Draw or Hammerfest IF Stein
16%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
68%
Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
97%
Mjølner 2+ goals
86%
Mjølner 3+ goals
66%
Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals
59%
Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals
22%
Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
94%
Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Hammerfest IF Stein away — creates 0.08, concedes 4.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.92 → ÷2 → 3.54

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.08 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Mjølner scores more
84%
level
10%
Hammerfest IF Stein scores more
6%

Mjølner at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjølner vs Hammerfest IF Stein

Mjølner beat Hammerfest IF Stein 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Narvik Stadion in Narvik.