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Mjølner vs Hønefoss — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Hønefoss
Hønefoss
5/12/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 6Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjølner16%
×Draw16%
Hønefoss68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
1.39
Hønefoss
2.91

Hønefoss creates 109% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Hønefoss
4.15

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Hønefoss
0.62

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Hønefoss+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Hønefoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
32%
Mjølner or Hønefoss
84%
Draw or Hønefoss
84%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
7%
Hønefoss wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
75%
Mjølner 2+ goals
40%
Mjølner 3+ goals
16%
Hønefoss 1+ goals
94%
Hønefoss 2+ goals
78%
Hønefoss 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
19%
Hønefoss (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Hønefoss away — creates 4.15, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Hønefoss defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hønefoss attack 4.15 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mjølner scores more
16%
level
16%
Hønefoss scores more
68%

Hønefoss at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Mjølner 1–4 Hønefoss

Hønefoss beat Mjølner 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Narvik Stadion in Narvik.