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Mjølner vs Bossekop — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Mjølner
Mjølner
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bossekop
Bossekop
10/16/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 25Narvik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjølner71%
×Draw15%
Bossekop14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjølner
3.16
Bossekop
1.38

Mjølner creates 129% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mjølner
2.16
Bossekop
1.08

allows per match

Mjølner
1.67
Bossekop
4.15

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par
Bossekop+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Bossekop →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw
86%
Mjølner or Bossekop
85%
Draw or Bossekop
29%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+
52%
Bossekop wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals
96%
Mjølner 2+ goals
82%
Mjølner 3+ goals
59%
Bossekop 1+ goals
75%
Bossekop 2+ goals
40%
Bossekop 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)
84%
Bossekop (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Bossekop away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 2.16 + Bossekop defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.16

Bossekop attack 1.08 + Mjølner defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Mjølner scores more
71%
level
15%
Bossekop scores more
14%

Mjølner at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjølner vs Bossekop

Mjølner beat Bossekop 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Narvik Stadion in Narvik.