Mjølner 1–5 Asane: Result & Stats

Mjølner

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 0

Asane

5/5/2019

2. Division - Group 2 · Round 4Narvik Stadion (Narvik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjølner30%

×Draw22%

Asane48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjølnerExpected goals in this matchAsane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.89

Mjølner

1.46

Asane

1.89

Asane creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

2.31

1.46

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Mjølner

1.15

Asane

2.31

allows per match

Mjølner

1.46

Asane

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjølner+0.00on par

Asane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjølner ↓

Asane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mjølner or draw

52%

Mjølner or Asane

78%

Draw or Asane

70%

Winning margin

Mjølner wins by 2+

14%

Asane wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mjølner 1+ goals

77%

Mjølner 2+ goals

43%

Mjølner 3+ goals

18%

Asane 1+ goals

85%

Asane 2+ goals

56%

Asane 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Mjølner (draw refunded)

39%

Asane (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjølner at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Asane away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjølner attack 1.15 + Asane defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Asane attack 2.31 + Mjølner defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mjølner scores more

30%

level

22%

Asane scores more

48%

Asane at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Asane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff