Mixto 2–0 Goiatuba EC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Mixto

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Goiatuba EC

5/16/2026

Serie D · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mixto39%

×Draw28%

Goiatuba EC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MixtoExpected goals in this matchGoiatuba EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.07

Mixto

1.21

Goiatuba EC

1.07

Mixto creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

1.36

creates per match

1.31

0.84

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Mixto

1.36

Goiatuba EC

1.31

allows per match

Mixto

0.84

Goiatuba EC

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mixto+0.00on par

Goiatuba EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mixto ↓

Goiatuba EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mixto or draw

68%

Mixto or Goiatuba EC

72%

Draw or Goiatuba EC

61%

Winning margin

Mixto wins by 2+

17%

Goiatuba EC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mixto 1+ goals

70%

Mixto 2+ goals

34%

Mixto 3+ goals

12%

Goiatuba EC 1+ goals

66%

Goiatuba EC 2+ goals

29%

Goiatuba EC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mixto (draw refunded)

55%

Goiatuba EC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mixto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Goiatuba EC away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mixto attack 1.36 + Goiatuba EC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Goiatuba EC attack 1.31 + Mixto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mixto scores more

39%

level

28%

Goiatuba EC scores more

32%

Mixto at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mixto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff