Mixto 3–2 Goianésia: Result & Stats | Serie D

Mixto

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Goianésia

Emerson Machado 70'

Gabriel Justino 37', 25'

Kaio Wilker 86'

Wesley 14'

Bruninho 3'

5/31/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Presidente Eurico Gaspar Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mixto46%

×Draw28%

Goianésia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MixtoExpected goals in this matchGoianésia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.94

Mixto

1.33

Goianésia

0.94

Mixto creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.36

creates per match

1.04

0.84

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Mixto

1.36

Goianésia

1.04

allows per match

Mixto

0.84

Goianésia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mixto+0.00on par

Goianésia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mixto ↓

Goianésia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mixto or draw

74%

Mixto or Goianésia

72%

Draw or Goianésia

54%

Winning margin

Mixto wins by 2+

21%

Goianésia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mixto 1+ goals

74%

Mixto 2+ goals

38%

Mixto 3+ goals

15%

Goianésia 1+ goals

61%

Goianésia 2+ goals

24%

Goianésia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mixto (draw refunded)

63%

Goianésia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mixto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Goianésia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mixto attack 1.36 + Goianésia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Goianésia attack 1.04 + Mixto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mixto scores more

46%

level

28%

Goianésia scores more

26%

Mixto at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mixto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Bruninho

14'

Wesley

25'

Gabriel Justino

37'

Gabriel Justino

59'

70'

Emerson Machado

86'

Kaio Wilker

Mixto

Goianésia

⚽

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Lucas Isotton

Mixto substitutes

JuninhoSilvaMachadoAmorimVançanLopesAbnerÍndioKeynanMotaMatheuzinhoGabriel

Manager: Gian Rodrigues

Goianésia substitutes

EduardoKauãOliveiraSalaMosquitoDidaFernandoGuilhermeMouraMartinsRicardinhoRuan