Mixco 2–0 Guastatoya: Result & Stats

Mixco

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guastatoya

8/30/2025

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 7Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Mixco50%

×Draw29%

Guastatoya22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MixcoExpected goals in this matchGuastatoya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.76

Mixco

1.31

Guastatoya

0.76

Mixco creates 72% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 152 away

1.32

creates per match

0.73

0.78

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Mixco

1.32

Guastatoya

0.73

allows per match

Mixco

0.78

Guastatoya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mixco+0.00on par

Guastatoya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mixco ↓

Guastatoya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mixco or draw

78%

Mixco or Guastatoya

71%

Draw or Guastatoya

50%

Winning margin

Mixco wins by 2+

23%

Guastatoya wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mixco 1+ goals

73%

Mixco 2+ goals

38%

Mixco 3+ goals

14%

Guastatoya 1+ goals

53%

Guastatoya 2+ goals

18%

Guastatoya 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mixco (draw refunded)

70%

Guastatoya (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mixco at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Guastatoya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mixco attack 1.32 + Guastatoya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Guastatoya attack 0.73 + Mixco defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mixco scores more

50%

level

29%

Guastatoya scores more

22%

Mixco at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mixco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff