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Mitundu Baptist vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
5/2/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mitundu Baptist44%
×Draw29%
Kamuzu Barracks27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitundu Baptist
1.25
Kamuzu Barracks
0.90

Mitundu Baptist creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 81 away

creates per match

Mitundu Baptist
1.40
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Mitundu Baptist
0.80
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitundu Baptist ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mitundu Baptist or draw
73%
Mitundu Baptist or Kamuzu Barracks
71%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
56%

Winning margin

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
20%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
71%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
36%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
13%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
59%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
23%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
62%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitundu Baptist at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitundu Baptist attack 1.40 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Mitundu Baptist defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mitundu Baptist scores more
44%
level
29%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
27%

Mitundu Baptist at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mitundu Baptist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mitundu Baptist vs Kamuzu Barracks

Mitundu Baptist beat Kamuzu Barracks 1-0 in Super League on May 2, 2026.