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Mitundu Baptist vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CIVO United
CIVO United
5/30/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mitundu Baptist44%
×Draw29%
CIVO United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitundu Baptist
1.27
CIVO United
0.93

Mitundu Baptist creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 80 away

creates per match

Mitundu Baptist
1.40
CIVO United
1.06

allows per match

Mitundu Baptist
0.80
CIVO United
1.15

finishing

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitundu Baptist ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mitundu Baptist or draw
73%
Mitundu Baptist or CIVO United
71%
Draw or CIVO United
56%

Winning margin

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
20%
CIVO United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
72%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
36%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
14%
CIVO United 1+ goals
61%
CIVO United 2+ goals
24%
CIVO United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
62%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitundu Baptist at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitundu Baptist attack 1.40 + CIVO United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

CIVO United attack 1.06 + Mitundu Baptist defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mitundu Baptist scores more
44%
level
29%
CIVO United scores more
27%

Mitundu Baptist at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mitundu Baptist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mitundu Baptist 3–0 CIVO United

Mitundu Baptist beat CIVO United 3-0 in Super League on May 30, 2026.