Mitrovica W 1–0 Breznica W: Result & Stats

Mitrovica W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Breznica W

8/13/2019

UEFA Champions League Women · Qualifying Round - 3Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mitrovica W37%

×Draw21%

Breznica W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mitrovica WExpected goals in this matchBreznica W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.05

Mitrovica W

1.90

Breznica W

2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.60

3.50

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Mitrovica W

1.00

Breznica W

0.60

allows per match

Mitrovica W

3.50

Breznica W

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitrovica W+0.00on par

Breznica W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitrovica W ↓

Breznica W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Mitrovica W or draw

58%

Mitrovica W or Breznica W

79%

Draw or Breznica W

63%

Winning margin

Mitrovica W wins by 2+

19%

Breznica W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Mitrovica W 1+ goals

85%

Mitrovica W 2+ goals

56%

Mitrovica W 3+ goals

29%

Breznica W 1+ goals

87%

Breznica W 2+ goals

61%

Breznica W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Mitrovica W (draw refunded)

46%

Breznica W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitrovica W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Breznica W away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitrovica W attack 1.00 + Breznica W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Breznica W attack 0.60 + Mitrovica W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mitrovica W scores more

37%

level

21%

Breznica W scores more

42%

Breznica W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Breznica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff