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Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
4/29/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mito Hollyhock23%
×Draw27%
Machida Zelvia50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mito Hollyhock
0.88
Machida Zelvia
1.45

Machida Zelvia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 43 away

creates per match

Mito Hollyhock
0.83
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.50
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mito Hollyhock ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mito Hollyhock or draw
50%
Mito Hollyhock or Machida Zelvia
73%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
77%

Winning margin

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
8%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
59%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
22%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
6%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
77%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
42%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
31%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mito Hollyhock at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mito Hollyhock attack 0.83 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mito Hollyhock scores more
23%
level
27%
Machida Zelvia scores more
50%

Machida Zelvia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Mito Hollyhock 2–2 Machida Zelvia

Mito Hollyhock and Machida Zelvia drew 2-2 in J1 League on April 29, 2026.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Mito.