Mito Hollyhock 2–1 Kanazawa: Result & Stats

Mito Hollyhock

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kanazawa

9/26/2021

J2 League · Round 31K’s Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Mito Hollyhock43%

×Draw26%

Kanazawa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mito HollyhockExpected goals in this matchKanazawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.19

Mito Hollyhock

1.45

Kanazawa

1.19

Mito Hollyhock creates 22% more chances

Season form · 168 home / 126 away

1.36

creates per match

1.25

1.12

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Mito Hollyhock

1.36

Kanazawa

1.25

allows per match

Mito Hollyhock

1.12

Kanazawa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mito Hollyhock ↓

Kanazawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mito Hollyhock or draw

69%

Mito Hollyhock or Kanazawa

74%

Draw or Kanazawa

57%

Winning margin

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

21%

Kanazawa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

77%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

42%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

18%

Kanazawa 1+ goals

70%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

33%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

58%

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mito Hollyhock at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 168 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.36 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mito Hollyhock scores more

43%

level

26%

Kanazawa scores more

31%

Mito Hollyhock at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mito Hollyhock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff