Mitchelton 2–1 Western Pride: Result & Stats

Mitchelton

FT

2 – 1

Western Pride

7/18/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 16Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mitchelton34%

×Draw21%

Western Pride45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MitcheltonExpected goals in this matchWestern Pride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.13

Mitchelton

1.83

Western Pride

2.13

Western Pride creates 16% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 32 away

1.73

creates per match

1.66

2.59

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Mitchelton

1.73

Western Pride

1.66

allows per match

Mitchelton

2.59

Western Pride

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Western Pride →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw

55%

Mitchelton or Western Pride

79%

Draw or Western Pride

66%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+

17%

Western Pride wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals

84%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

54%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

28%

Western Pride 1+ goals

88%

Western Pride 2+ goals

63%

Western Pride 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

43%

Western Pride (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.83

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mitchelton scores more

34%

level

21%

Western Pride scores more

45%

Western Pride at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff