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Mitchelton vs WDSC Wolves — League #191 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
2 – 0
WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
6/13/2015League #191League #191 · Round 14Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mitchelton40%
×Draw21%
WDSC Wolves39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
2.00
WDSC Wolves
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
2.00
WDSC Wolves
2.33

allows per match

Mitchelton
1.60
WDSC Wolves
2.00

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
WDSC Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

WDSC Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
61%
Mitchelton or WDSC Wolves
79%
Draw or WDSC Wolves
60%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
22%
WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
86%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
59%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
32%
WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
86%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
58%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
51%
WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

WDSC Wolves away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 2.00 + WDSC Wolves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

WDSC Wolves attack 2.33 + Mitchelton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mitchelton scores more
40%
level
21%
WDSC Wolves scores more
39%

Mitchelton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mitchelton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #191: Mitchelton 2–0 WDSC Wolves

Mitchelton beat WDSC Wolves 2-0 in League #191 on June 13, 2015.

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.