Mitchelton 5–1 Magpies Crusaders: Result & Stats

Mitchelton

FT

5 – 1

Magpies Crusaders

7/9/2022

Queensland Premier League · Round 17Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mitchelton38%

×Draw19%

Magpies Crusaders43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MitcheltonExpected goals in this matchMagpies Crusaders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

2.54

Mitchelton

2.37

Magpies Crusaders

2.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 10 away

1.73

creates per match

2.50

2.59

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Mitchelton

1.73

Magpies Crusaders

2.50

allows per match

Mitchelton

2.59

Magpies Crusaders

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Magpies Crusaders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw

57%

Mitchelton or Magpies Crusaders

81%

Draw or Magpies Crusaders

62%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+

21%

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals

91%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

68%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

42%

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

92%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

72%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

47%

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Magpies Crusaders defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.37

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.50 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mitchelton scores more

38%

level

19%

Magpies Crusaders scores more

43%

Magpies Crusaders at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Magpies Crusaders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff