Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mitchelton vs Caboolture — Queensland Premier League 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Caboolture
Caboolture
Unknown 74', 3'
Unknown 88', 84', 68'
6/2/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 13Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mitchelton33%
×Draw20%
Caboolture46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
1.90
Caboolture
2.25

Caboolture creates 18% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 50 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
1.73
Caboolture
1.90

allows per match

Mitchelton
2.59
Caboolture
2.06

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
Caboolture+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Caboolture →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
54%
Mitchelton or Caboolture
80%
Draw or Caboolture
67%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
17%
Caboolture wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
85%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
56%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
29%
Caboolture 1+ goals
89%
Caboolture 2+ goals
65%
Caboolture 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
42%
Caboolture (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Caboolture away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Caboolture defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.90

Caboolture attack 1.90 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mitchelton scores more
33%
level
20%
Caboolture scores more
46%

Caboolture at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Caboolture will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
68'
74'
75'
84'
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Mitchelton 2–3 Caboolture

Caboolture beat Mitchelton 3-2 in Queensland Premier League on June 2, 2024.

Goals: ? (3', 68', 74', 84', 88').

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.