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Mitchelton vs Brisbane Strikers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
4 – 0
Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
7/26/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 16Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mitchelton28%
×Draw20%
Brisbane Strikers52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
1.77
Brisbane Strikers
2.44

Brisbane Strikers creates 38% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 55 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
1.73
Brisbane Strikers
2.29

allows per match

Mitchelton
2.59
Brisbane Strikers
1.82

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Brisbane Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
48%
Mitchelton or Brisbane Strikers
80%
Draw or Brisbane Strikers
72%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
14%
Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
83%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
53%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
26%
Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
91%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
70%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
35%
Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.29 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mitchelton scores more
28%
level
20%
Brisbane Strikers scores more
52%

Brisbane Strikers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Mitchelton 4–0 Brisbane Strikers

Mitchelton beat Brisbane Strikers 4-0 in Queensland Premier League on July 26, 2022.

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.