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Mitchelton vs Brisbane City — Queensland Premier League 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
1 – 4
Brisbane City
Brisbane City
3/20/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Teralba Park 2 Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mitchelton15%
×Draw17%
Brisbane City67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
1.17
Brisbane City
2.59

Brisbane City creates 121% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
1.73
Brisbane City
2.60

allows per match

Mitchelton
2.59
Brisbane City
0.60

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
Brisbane City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Brisbane City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
33%
Mitchelton or Brisbane City
83%
Draw or Brisbane City
85%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
6%
Brisbane City wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
69%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
33%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
11%
Brisbane City 1+ goals
92%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
73%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
19%
Brisbane City (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Brisbane City away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Brisbane City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brisbane City attack 2.60 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mitchelton scores more
15%
level
17%
Brisbane City scores more
67%

Brisbane City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Mitchelton 1–4 Brisbane City

Brisbane City beat Mitchelton 4-1 in Queensland Premier League on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Teralba Park 2 Synthetic in Mitchelton.