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Mitchelton vs Albany Creek — Queensland Premier League 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
1 – 0
Albany Creek
Albany Creek
6/2/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 12Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mitchelton31%
×Draw22%
Albany Creek47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
1.54
Albany Creek
1.93

Albany Creek creates 25% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
1.73
Albany Creek
1.27

allows per match

Mitchelton
2.59
Albany Creek
1.36

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
Albany Creek+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Albany Creek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
53%
Mitchelton or Albany Creek
78%
Draw or Albany Creek
69%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
15%
Albany Creek wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
79%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
45%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
20%
Albany Creek 1+ goals
85%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
57%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
40%
Albany Creek (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Albany Creek away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Albany Creek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Albany Creek attack 1.27 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mitchelton scores more
31%
level
22%
Albany Creek scores more
47%

Albany Creek at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Albany Creek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Mitchelton 1–0 Albany Creek

Mitchelton beat Albany Creek 1-0 in Queensland Premier League on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.