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Mississippi Brilla vs Round Rock — USL League Two 2018

Mississippi Brilla
Mississippi Brilla
FT
3 – 0
Round Rock
Round Rock
5/16/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 4Arrow Field at Clinton High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mississippi Brilla62%
×Draw18%
Round Rock20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mississippi Brilla
2.60
Round Rock
1.41

Mississippi Brilla creates 84% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mississippi Brilla
2.05
Round Rock
1.25

allows per match

Mississippi Brilla
1.56
Round Rock
3.15

finishing

Mississippi Brilla+0.00on par
Round Rock+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mississippi Brilla ↓

Round Rock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mississippi Brilla or draw
80%
Mississippi Brilla or Round Rock
82%
Draw or Round Rock
38%

Winning margin

Mississippi Brilla wins by 2+
42%
Round Rock wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mississippi Brilla 1+ goals
92%
Mississippi Brilla 2+ goals
73%
Mississippi Brilla 3+ goals
47%
Round Rock 1+ goals
76%
Round Rock 2+ goals
41%
Round Rock 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mississippi Brilla (draw refunded)
76%
Round Rock (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mississippi Brilla at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Round Rock away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mississippi Brilla attack 2.05 + Round Rock defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.60

Round Rock attack 1.25 + Mississippi Brilla defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mississippi Brilla scores more
62%
level
18%
Round Rock scores more
20%

Mississippi Brilla at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mississippi Brilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mississippi Brilla 3 – 0 Round Rock

Mississippi Brilla beat Round Rock 3-0 in USL League Two on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Arrow Field at Clinton High School in Clinton, Mississippi.