Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Missile vs US Oyem — Championnat D1 2022

Missile
Missile
FT
4 – 1
US Oyem
US Oyem
2/19/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 9Stade de L'INJS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Missile40%
×Draw28%
US Oyem32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Missile
1.26
US Oyem
1.08

Missile creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 33 away

creates per match

Missile
0.88
US Oyem
0.91

allows per match

Missile
1.25
US Oyem
1.64

finishing

Missile+0.00on par
US Oyem+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Missile ↓

US Oyem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Missile or draw
68%
Missile or US Oyem
72%
Draw or US Oyem
60%

Winning margin

Missile wins by 2+
18%
US Oyem wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Missile 1+ goals
72%
Missile 2+ goals
36%
Missile 3+ goals
13%
US Oyem 1+ goals
66%
US Oyem 2+ goals
29%
US Oyem 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Missile (draw refunded)
56%
US Oyem (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Missile at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

US Oyem away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Missile attack 0.88 + US Oyem defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

US Oyem attack 0.91 + Missile defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Missile scores more
40%
level
28%
US Oyem scores more
32%

Missile at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Missile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Missile 4 – 1 US Oyem

Missile beat US Oyem 4-1 in Championnat D1 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de L'INJS in Libreville.