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Missile vs Dikaki — Championnat D1 2022

Missile
Missile
CANC
14:30
Dikaki
Dikaki
3/31/2024Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 1Stade de L'INJS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Missile45%
×Draw28%
Dikaki27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Missile
1.35
Dikaki
0.99

Missile creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 33 away

creates per match

Missile
0.88
Dikaki
0.73

allows per match

Missile
1.25
Dikaki
1.82

finishing

Missile+0.00on par
Dikaki+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Missile ↓

Dikaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Missile or draw
73%
Missile or Dikaki
72%
Draw or Dikaki
55%

Winning margin

Missile wins by 2+
21%
Dikaki wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Missile 1+ goals
74%
Missile 2+ goals
39%
Missile 3+ goals
15%
Dikaki 1+ goals
63%
Dikaki 2+ goals
26%
Dikaki 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Missile (draw refunded)
62%
Dikaki (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Missile at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Dikaki away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Missile attack 0.88 + Dikaki defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dikaki attack 0.73 + Missile defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Missile scores more
45%
level
28%
Dikaki scores more
27%

Missile at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Missile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Missile host Dikaki

March 31, 2024: Missile take on Dikaki in Championnat D1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Missile host Dikaki at Stade de L'INJS.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.