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Misr EL Makasa vs Smouha SC — Premier League 2018

Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Smouha SC
Smouha SC
4/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Misr EL Makasa33%
×Draw29%
Smouha SC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr EL Makasa
1.05
Smouha SC
1.15

Smouha SC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 127 away

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa
0.94
Smouha SC
1.02

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa
1.28
Smouha SC
1.17

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par
Smouha SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

Smouha SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw
62%
Misr EL Makasa or Smouha SC
71%
Draw or Smouha SC
67%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
13%
Smouha SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
65%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
28%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
9%
Smouha SC 1+ goals
68%
Smouha SC 2+ goals
32%
Smouha SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
46%
Smouha SC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Smouha SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + Smouha SC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Smouha SC attack 1.02 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more
33%
level
29%
Smouha SC scores more
38%

Smouha SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Smouha SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Misr EL Makasa vs Smouha SC

Misr EL Makasa and Smouha SC drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.