Misr EL Makasa 1–0 Ghazl El Mehalla: Result & Stats

Misr EL Makasa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ghazl El Mehalla

5/28/2021

Premier League · Round 25Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Misr EL Makasa39%

×Draw29%

Ghazl El Mehalla31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Misr EL MakasaExpected goals in this matchGhazl El Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.00

Misr EL Makasa

1.15

Ghazl El Mehalla

1.00

Misr EL Makasa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 79 away

0.94

creates per match

0.72

1.28

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa

0.94

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.72

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa

1.28

Ghazl El Mehalla

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

Ghazl El Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw

69%

Misr EL Makasa or Ghazl El Mehalla

71%

Draw or Ghazl El Mehalla

61%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+

16%

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals

68%

Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals

32%

Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals

11%

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals

63%

Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals

26%

Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)

55%

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Ghazl El Mehalla away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.72 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more

39%

level

29%

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more

31%

Misr EL Makasa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Misr EL Makasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff