Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Misr EL Makasa vs El Sharqia Dokhan — Premier League 2018

Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Sharqia Dokhan
El Sharqia Dokhan
12/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Cairo Military Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Misr EL Makasa37%
×Draw28%
El Sharqia Dokhan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr EL Makasa
1.17
El Sharqia Dokhan
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa
0.94
El Sharqia Dokhan
1.00

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa
1.28
El Sharqia Dokhan
1.41

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par
El Sharqia Dokhan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

El Sharqia Dokhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw
65%
Misr EL Makasa or El Sharqia Dokhan
72%
Draw or El Sharqia Dokhan
63%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
15%
El Sharqia Dokhan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
69%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
33%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
11%
El Sharqia Dokhan 1+ goals
68%
El Sharqia Dokhan 2+ goals
32%
El Sharqia Dokhan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
51%
El Sharqia Dokhan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

El Sharqia Dokhan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + El Sharqia Dokhan defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

El Sharqia Dokhan attack 1.00 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more
37%
level
28%
El Sharqia Dokhan scores more
35%

Misr EL Makasa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Misr EL Makasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Misr EL Makasa 0 – 0 El Sharqia Dokhan

Misr EL Makasa and El Sharqia Dokhan drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 20, 2021.

The match was played at Cairo Military Academy Stadium in Cairo.