Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Misr EL Makasa vs El Mokawloon — Premier League 2018

Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Mokawloon
El Mokawloon
3/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Misr EL Makasa33%
×Draw29%
El Mokawloon38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr EL Makasa
1.08
El Mokawloon
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 99 away

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa
0.94
El Mokawloon
1.08

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa
1.28
El Mokawloon
1.23

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par
El Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

El Mokawloon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw
62%
Misr EL Makasa or El Mokawloon
71%
Draw or El Mokawloon
67%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
13%
El Mokawloon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
66%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
29%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
10%
El Mokawloon 1+ goals
69%
El Mokawloon 2+ goals
33%
El Mokawloon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
47%
El Mokawloon (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

El Mokawloon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + El Mokawloon defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

El Mokawloon attack 1.08 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more
33%
level
29%
El Mokawloon scores more
38%

El Mokawloon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "El Mokawloon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Misr EL Makasa 0–0 El Mokawloon

Misr EL Makasa and El Mokawloon drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 2, 2021.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.