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Misr EL Makasa vs El Gouna FC — Premier League 2018

Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Gouna FC
El Gouna FC
10/31/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Cairo Military Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Misr EL Makasa35%
×Draw29%
El Gouna FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr EL Makasa
1.09
El Gouna FC
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 117 away

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa
0.94
El Gouna FC
0.91

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa
1.28
El Gouna FC
1.24

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par
El Gouna FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

El Gouna FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw
65%
Misr EL Makasa or El Gouna FC
71%
Draw or El Gouna FC
65%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
14%
El Gouna FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
66%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
30%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
10%
El Gouna FC 1+ goals
66%
El Gouna FC 2+ goals
30%
El Gouna FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
50%
El Gouna FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

El Gouna FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + El Gouna FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

El Gouna FC attack 0.91 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more
35%
level
29%
El Gouna FC scores more
35%

Misr EL Makasa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Misr EL Makasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Misr EL Makasa 2 – 0 El Gouna FC

Misr EL Makasa beat El Gouna FC 2-0 in Premier League on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Cairo Military Academy Stadium in Cairo.