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Misr EL Makasa vs El Entag EL Harby — Premier League 2018

Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
El Entag EL Harby
El Entag EL Harby
2/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Misr EL Makasa36%
×Draw28%
El Entag EL Harby37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr EL Makasa
1.19
El Entag EL Harby
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa
0.94
El Entag EL Harby
1.14

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa
1.28
El Entag EL Harby
1.45

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par
El Entag EL Harby+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

El Entag EL Harby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw
63%
Misr EL Makasa or El Entag EL Harby
72%
Draw or El Entag EL Harby
64%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
15%
El Entag EL Harby wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
70%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
33%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
12%
El Entag EL Harby 1+ goals
70%
El Entag EL Harby 2+ goals
34%
El Entag EL Harby 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
49%
El Entag EL Harby (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

El Entag EL Harby away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + El Entag EL Harby defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

El Entag EL Harby attack 1.14 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more
36%
level
28%
El Entag EL Harby scores more
37%

El Entag EL Harby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "El Entag EL Harby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Misr EL Makasa vs El Entag EL Harby

Misr EL Makasa and El Entag EL Harby drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.