Mirebalais 1–0 Valencia: Result & Stats

Mirebalais

FT

1 – 0

Valencia

10/10/2015

League #379 · Série de Clôture - 5Parc Nelson Petit-Frère

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mirebalais70%

×Draw30%

Valencia0%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirebalaisExpected goals in this matchValencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.00

Mirebalais

1.20

Valencia

0.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

0.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Mirebalais

1.20

Valencia

0.00

allows per match

Mirebalais

0.00

Valencia

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirebalais+0.00on par

Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under88
Over12

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No100

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirebalais ↓

Valencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–030%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–036%

1–10%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–022%

2–10%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (36%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

70%30%1.5

34%66%2.5

12%88%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Mirebalais or draw

100%

Mirebalais or Valencia

70%

Draw or Valencia

30%

Winning margin

Mirebalais wins by 2+

34%

Valencia wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Mirebalais 1+ goals

70%

Mirebalais 2+ goals

34%

Mirebalais 3+ goals

12%

Valencia 1+ goals

0%

Valencia 2+ goals

0%

Valencia 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Mirebalais (draw refunded)

100%

Valencia (draw refunded)

0%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

0%

Both score & under 3

0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirebalais at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

Valencia away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirebalais attack 1.20 + Valencia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Valencia attack 0.00 + Mirebalais defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mirebalais scores more

70%

level

30%

Valencia scores more

0%

Mirebalais at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Mirebalais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff