Mirassol 2–1 Palmeiras: Result & Stats | Serie A

Mirassol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Palmeiras

Joao Victor 45'

Gabriel 2'

Vitor Roque 30'

11/9/2025

Serie A · Round 33Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Mirassol42%

×Draw26%

Palmeiras32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirassolExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.19

Mirassol

1.41

Palmeiras

1.19

Mirassol creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 41 away

1.59

creates per match

1.25

1.14

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Mirassol

1.59

Palmeiras

1.25

allows per match

Mirassol

1.14

Palmeiras

1.23

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Mirassol+0.29scores more

Palmeiras+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw

68%

Mirassol or Palmeiras

74%

Draw or Palmeiras

58%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+

20%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals

76%

Mirassol 2+ goals

41%

Mirassol 3+ goals

17%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

70%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

33%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)

57%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 24 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.23 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.59 + Palmeiras defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Palmeiras attack 1.25 + Mirassol defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mirassol scores more

42%

level

26%

Palmeiras scores more

32%

Mirassol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Gabriel

Mirassol · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

2'

27'

30'

45+1'

45'

Joao Victor↳ Reinaldo

46'

Bruno Fuchs← Murilo

46'

R. Sosa← Felipe Anderson

54'

João Victor

62'

Neto Moura← Jose Aldo

62'

Chico← Cristian Renato

66'

Bruno Fuchs

66'

Shaylon← Gabriel

69'

Mauricio← Khellven

69'

Raphael Veiga← A. Moreno

81'

Bruno Rodrigues← A. Pereira

83'

Walter

83'

Luiz Otavio← Alesson

83'

Carlos Eduardo← Negueba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirassolPalmeiras

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots14

1.48Expected Goals (xG)1.14

8Corners8

15Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots14

8On Target6

5Off Target3

5Blocked5

12Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

388Total Passes311

322Accurate Passes238

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

-1.07Goals Prevented-1.07

Discipline

15Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Serie A: Mirassol 2–1 Palmeiras

Mirassol beat Palmeiras 2-1 in Serie A on November 9, 2025.

Goals: Gabriel (2'), Vitor Roque (30'), Joao Victor (45').

Mirassol controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol.

Mirassol vs Palmeiras — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Mirassol 2–1 Palmeiras