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Mirassol vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Mirassol
Mirassol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
5/7/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mirassol68%
×Draw23%
LDU de Quito9%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol
1.63
LDU de Quito
0.41

Mirassol creates 298% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

creates per match

Mirassol
1.67
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Mirassol
0.00
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw
91%
Mirassol or LDU de Quito
77%
Draw or LDU de Quito
32%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+
39%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals
80%
Mirassol 2+ goals
48%
Mirassol 3+ goals
22%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
34%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
6%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)
88%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.67 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Mirassol defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mirassol scores more
68%
level
23%
LDU de Quito scores more
9%

Mirassol at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Mirassol 2–0 LDU de Quito

Mirassol beat LDU de Quito 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol.