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Mirassol vs Internacional SC — Serie D 2018

Mirassol
Mirassol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Internacional SC
Internacional SC
5/13/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 4Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mirassol79%
×Draw15%
Internacional SC6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol
2.30
Internacional SC
0.45

Mirassol creates 411% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mirassol
2.60
Internacional SC
0.50

allows per match

Mirassol
0.40
Internacional SC
2.00

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par
Internacional SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Internacional SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw
94%
Mirassol or Internacional SC
85%
Draw or Internacional SC
21%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+
55%
Internacional SC wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals
90%
Mirassol 2+ goals
67%
Mirassol 3+ goals
40%
Internacional SC 1+ goals
36%
Internacional SC 2+ goals
8%
Internacional SC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)
93%
Internacional SC (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Internacional SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 2.60 + Internacional SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Internacional SC attack 0.50 + Mirassol defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Mirassol scores more
79%
level
15%
Internacional SC scores more
6%

Mirassol at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirassol vs Internacional SC

Mirassol beat Internacional SC 2-0 in Serie D on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol, São Paulo).