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Mirassol vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Mirassol
Mirassol
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
11/18/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 37Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mirassol49%
×Draw29%
Atletico Goianiense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol
1.29
Atletico Goianiense
0.76

Mirassol creates 70% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mirassol
1.34
Atletico Goianiense
1.05

allows per match

Mirassol
0.47
Atletico Goianiense
1.23

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par
Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw
78%
Mirassol or Atletico Goianiense
71%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
51%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+
23%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals
72%
Mirassol 2+ goals
37%
Mirassol 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
53%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
18%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)
69%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.47 · 38 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.34 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.05 + Mirassol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mirassol scores more
49%
level
29%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
22%

Mirassol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Mirassol 4–1 Atletico Goianiense

Mirassol beat Atletico Goianiense 4-1 in Serie B on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, São Paulo.