Mirassol U20 4–0 Sertãozinho U20: Result & Stats

Mirassol U20

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sertãozinho U20

Unknown 73', 64', 58', 18'

8/23/2024

Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 2CT Mirassol Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mirassol U2057%

×Draw23%

Sertãozinho U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mirassol U20Expected goals in this matchSertãozinho U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.00

Mirassol U20

1.85

Sertãozinho U20

1.00

Mirassol U20 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.74

creates per match

1.13

0.87

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Mirassol U20

1.74

Sertãozinho U20

1.13

allows per match

Mirassol U20

0.87

Sertãozinho U20

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw

80%

Mirassol U20 or Sertãozinho U20

77%

Draw or Sertãozinho U20

43%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+

33%

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals

84%

Mirassol U20 2+ goals

55%

Mirassol U20 3+ goals

28%

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals

63%

Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals

26%

Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)

74%

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more

57%

level

23%

Sertãozinho U20 scores more

20%

Mirassol U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

58'

64'

73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff