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Mirassol U20 vs São José EC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
São José EC U20
São José EC U20
Unknown 85' (pen)
F. Silva Pereira dos Santos 68'
E. Parra 57'
G. Schemes 50', 14'
Enzo 4'
5/16/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4CT Mirassol Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mirassol U2059%
×Draw22%
São José EC U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol U20
1.94
São José EC U20
1.01

Mirassol U20 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mirassol U20
1.74
São José EC U20
1.15

allows per match

Mirassol U20
0.87
São José EC U20
2.15

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par
São José EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

São José EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw
81%
Mirassol U20 or São José EC U20
78%
Draw or São José EC U20
41%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
35%
São José EC U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals
86%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
58%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
30%
São José EC U20 1+ goals
64%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
27%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
75%
São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

São José EC U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + São José EC U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.94

São José EC U20 attack 1.15 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more
59%
level
22%
São José EC U20 scores more
19%

Mirassol U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Enzo
14'
G. Schemes
50'
G. Schemes
57'
E. Parra
68'
F. Silva Pereira dos Santos
85'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirassol U20 vs São José EC U20

Mirassol U20 beat São José EC U20 6-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 16, 2025.

Goals: Enzo (4'), G. Schemes (14', 50'), E. Parra (57'), F. Silva Pereira dos Santos (68'), ? (85' pen).

The match was played at CT Mirassol Futebol Clube in Mirassol, São Paulo.