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Mirassol U20 vs São Caetano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
Ramires 27'
F. Silva Pereira dos Santos 2'
Unknown 76', 45+3'
5/23/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5CT Mirassol Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mirassol U2052%
×Draw25%
São Caetano U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol U20
1.57
São Caetano U20
0.96

Mirassol U20 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mirassol U20
1.74
São Caetano U20
1.05

allows per match

Mirassol U20
0.87
São Caetano U20
1.40

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par
São Caetano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

São Caetano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw
77%
Mirassol U20 or São Caetano U20
75%
Draw or São Caetano U20
48%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
27%
São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals
79%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
46%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
21%
São Caetano U20 1+ goals
62%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
25%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
69%
São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

São Caetano U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

São Caetano U20 attack 1.05 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more
52%
level
25%
São Caetano U20 scores more
23%

Mirassol U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
F. Silva Pereira dos Santos
27'
Ramires
45+3'
76'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirassol U20 vs São Caetano U20

Mirassol U20 and São Caetano U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 23, 2025.

Goals: F. Silva Pereira dos Santos (2'), Ramires (27'), ? (45+3', 76').

The match was played at CT Mirassol Futebol Clube in Mirassol, São Paulo.