Mirassol U20 1–1 Portuguesa Santista U20

Mirassol U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portuguesa Santista U20

Unknown 81'

Unknown 45+1'

7/10/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mirassol U2064%

×Draw20%

Portuguesa Santista U2016%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mirassol U20Expected goals in this matchPortuguesa Santista U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.94

Mirassol U20

2.13

Portuguesa Santista U20

0.94

Mirassol U20 creates 127% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

1.74

creates per match

1.00

0.87

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Mirassol U20

1.74

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.00

allows per match

Mirassol U20

0.87

Portuguesa Santista U20

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

Portuguesa Santista U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw

84%

Mirassol U20 or Portuguesa Santista U20

80%

Draw or Portuguesa Santista U20

36%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+

41%

Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals

88%

Mirassol U20 2+ goals

63%

Mirassol U20 3+ goals

35%

Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals

61%

Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals

24%

Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)

80%

Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Portuguesa Santista U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.13

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.00 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more

64%

level

20%

Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more

16%

Mirassol U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

45+1'

63'

Missed penalty

81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff