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Mirassol U20 vs Jose Bonifacio EC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
Unknown 41'
D. Cabral 51'
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mirassol U2047%
×Draw24%
Jose Bonifacio EC U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol U20
1.69
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.30

Mirassol U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mirassol U20
1.74
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.73

allows per match

Mirassol U20
0.87
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.64

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par
Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw
70%
Mirassol U20 or Jose Bonifacio EC U20
76%
Draw or Jose Bonifacio EC U20
53%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
25%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals
82%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
50%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
24%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals
73%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals
37%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more
47%
level
24%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more
30%

Mirassol U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
51'
D. Cabral

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirassol U20 vs Jose Bonifacio EC U20

Mirassol U20 and Jose Bonifacio EC U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: ? (41'), D. Cabral (51').

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, São Paulo.