Mirandes 0–1 UD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UD Logroñés

4/11/2021

Segunda División · Round 34Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mirandes50%

×Draw27%

UD Logroñés23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.86

Mirandes

1.40

UD Logroñés

0.86

Mirandes creates 63% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 21 away

1.42

creates per match

0.62

1.11

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

UD Logroñés

0.62

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

UD Logroñés

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

UD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

77%

Mirandes or UD Logroñés

73%

Draw or UD Logroñés

50%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

24%

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

41%

Mirandes 3+ goals

17%

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

58%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

21%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

68%

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 149 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + UD Logroñés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

UD Logroñés attack 0.62 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mirandes scores more

50%

level

27%

UD Logroñés scores more

23%

Mirandes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff