Mirandes 0–2 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

Stoichkov 79'

J. Hernandez Garcia 65'

5/30/2021

Segunda División · Round 42Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mirandes44%

×Draw27%

Sabadell29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.03

Mirandes

1.35

Sabadell

1.03

Mirandes creates 31% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 21 away

1.42

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Sabadell

0.95

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Sabadell

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

71%

Mirandes or Sabadell

73%

Draw or Sabadell

56%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Sabadell wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

39%

Mirandes 3+ goals

15%

Sabadell 1+ goals

64%

Sabadell 2+ goals

28%

Sabadell 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

61%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Sabadell defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mirandes scores more

44%

level

27%

Sabadell scores more

29%

Mirandes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Josu Ozkoidi

Sabadell · D

7.9

Match Events

26'

I. Ozkoidi← I. Ozkoidi

59'

G. Sierra← H. Pena

59'

Nestor Querol← J. Hernandez Garcia

59'

M. Ezzarfani← P. Martinez

65'

J. Hernandez Garcia

66'

A. Lopez← A. Caballero

70'

P. Trigueros

72'

E. Hernandez← P. Capo

72'

I. Undabarrena← A. Lucena

79'

Stoichkov↳ I. Ozkoidi

80'

J. Jimenez← B. Letic

80'

G. Rodriguez← V. A. Meseguer Cavas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesSabadell

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots14

4Corners5

9Fouls5

Shots

11Total Shots14

2On Target7

7Off Target3

2Blocked4

3Inside Box9

8Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

474Total Passes352

396Accurate Passes253

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3

Segunda División: Mirandes 0–2 Sabadell

Sabadell beat Mirandes 2-0 in Segunda División on May 30, 2021.

Goals: J. Hernandez Garcia (65'), Stoichkov (79').

Mirandes controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Sabadell — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mirandes 0–2 Sabadell